There’s an interesting interview over at SF Signal with Alan Beatts, the owner of San Francisco’s Borderlands Books. Borderlands specializes in science fiction, fantasy, and horror, but Alan’s got some provocative thoughts about the book industry in general, especially on the future of brick-and-mortar bookstores both independent and otherwise:

If I had to make a prediction [about the future of bookstores] it would be something like this sequence of events:

 

1. Independent stores continue to struggle along with some closures, primarily large general interest stores (especially those with older owners) and marginally profitable smaller stores. Stores especially hard hit will be ones located near existing or newly opened chain super-stores.

 

2. Chain stores start to close locations due to sales losses to on-line merchants and electronic formats (ebooks and audio books). Independents continue to hang on but there is slow, constant attrition.

 

3. Chain stores start to move more and more towards on-line sales and continue to close locations. Independents, in part due to their lower operating costs, start to see marginally increased sales due to chain store closures. Marginal stores continue to close.

 

4. Chain stores either successfully make the transition to on-line and electronic sales or go out of business. Independents see substantial sales increase due to chains leaving the brick and mortar arena.

 

5. Continued movement towards electronic formats starts to drive independent sales down from the high of the previous period. Stores start to close again.

 

6. Electronic formats continue to build sales and store closures start to accelerate. Used book stores continue at previous levels with a significant dependence on on-line mail order sales.

 

7. For all intents and purposes new book stores cease to exist. Used bookstores move more and more towards to collectable books as cheap, electronic “reprints” eliminate the market for out of print books.

 

8. Final stage, bookstores are rare and specialize in expensive, collectable inventory. All new books are “published” in electronic formats except for small print runs of collector’s editions.

He’s assuming, of course, that some practical and aesthetically pleasing form of electronic book will be invented and catch on with the public. I think that probably will happen eventually, but I don’t see ebooks gaining any kind of traction until manufacturers drastically improve on the current generation of reading devices; they’re just not comfortable or convenient to use, at least not any of the ones I’ve seen. Still, there are growing forces in the marketplace that will no doubt force us towards some variety of electronic format, whether old curmudgeons like me like it or not, just as downloaded MP3s (or whatever the trendy file format du jour is) are now out-selling store-bought CDs.

Delivery medium aside, however, Alan’s prediction of the impending demise of brick-and-mortar bookstores, whether due to downloadable ebooks or economic realities that favor online purchasing, troubles me deeply. I, for one, do not look forward to the days when bookstores are “rare and specialize in expensive, collectible inventory.” I’ve always enjoyed the bookstore experience, from musty hole-in-the-wall shops crowded with ten-cent used paperbacks to the sleek chain megastores with the coffee bars in the corner. In fact, I sometimes think I enjoy the atmosphere of the store and the joy of browsing for an eye-catching title more enjoyable than actually reading my purchase . And browsing for whatever catches your fancy is the one aspect of book culture that I suspect will prove irreplaceable when we do go electronic.

A friend of mine once accused me of being “an analog kind of guy trapped in a digital world,” and perhaps this is just one more example of how correct his assessment of me was, but I don’t find the Internet conducive to the sort of browsing-for-books that I enjoy. Search engine-type services like Abebooks work best if you already know what you’re after.

Amazon‘s recommendation feature is based on previous purchases, so if you’ve never made a purchase before, or if you’ve only made a small number of purchases, it won’t be of much help. And while community-oriented services like LibraryThing hold much potential, and good old-fashioned word of mouth will never go out of fashion, I still don’t see them as any substitute for the whole sensual experience of killing a rainy afternoon in a physical place, surrounded by the physical sensations of books and other book-lovers, just waiting for that moment when something sparks and you know it’s time to buy.

The truth is, I am troubled by the rush to transition all of our tangible media into ones and zeroes. I like CDs and DVDs, and I liked LPs, cassettes, VHS tapes, and even actual film reels and 8-tracks before them. I like books and magazines. I like having something with some heft to it resting in my hand, and I like owning an actual object instead of mere information. I dislike how tiny and feather-light most of our gadgets have become. Yes, they’re more convenient and less obtrusive. They’re also easier to lose and have less of a sense of permanence about them. And maybe that’s what really bugs me about the emerging paradigms: there’s no sense of permanence, or at least of durability, to any of it. Everything seems to be becoming ephemeral and unmoored in a way that I don’t think it used to be. I question what that will ultimately do to the psychology of our culture and of individuals. In the time-honored tradition of grumpy old men everywhere, I worry that the next generation will be completely messed up because of these new-fangled contraptions. And it makes me sad to think that one day, if I want to sip a cappucino and pet a cat while I browse for a new book, I’ll have to make my own damn coffee, and sit at my desk trying to figure out how to click a mouse with a cup in one hand and a feline in the other…

In any event, it was an interesting interview. I recommend you go have a look.