Oscar predictions usually fall from the trees this time of year like overripe fruit, but this year seems to be curiously lacking in buzz. I haven’t really heard or read much speculation at all, possibly because there isn’t a single big film sucking all the oxygen out of the room the way Return of the King did last year. That’s too bad in a way, because it makes the whole event seem a little less compelling — there’s no inexorable pull toward an inevitable finish — but it also makes for more unpredictability in who actually takes home a gold statuette, and that’s always more interesting to talk about than a foregone conclusion.

In any event, here are my highly biased and quite possibly wrongheaded predictions for the major categories at the 77th Academy Awards, which are being presented this coming Sunday night.

Best Picture
And the nominees are:

1. The Aviator
2. Finding Neverland
3. Million Dollar Baby
4. Ray
5. Sideways

This year is unique for me in that I’ve actually seen all five Best Picture nominees and I actually liked all five, a rare conjunction for me. Even so, I think the results here are pretty easy to call. Finding Neverland and Ray are driven by fabulous performances from Johnny Depp and Jamie Foxx respectively, but I think both of these biographical films are a bit too conventional to win in this category. They’ll be recognized in other places. Sideways has received much critical love and could be a dark-horse winner, but I just don’t see it competing effectively against Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby and Martin Scorsese’s Aviator. Of these two remaining nominees, I think The Aviator has a good chance of winning — it’s a big period piece and a visual spectacle, which the Academy always seems to like — but I’m going to go with Million Dollar Baby, a devastating drama that combines elements of several genres with Eastwood’s characteristic streak of warm-blooded humanism. There has been some political controversy around this film, but those who look at it and think Eastwood is trying to make a statement are missing his true point, which is to let his characters live and breathe and do what’s right for them and them alone. It’s a beautiful film, and it’s my pick for best of the year.

Best Director
The nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese (The Aviator)
2. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
3. Taylor Hackford (Ray)
4. Alexander Payne (Sideways)
5. Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)

If Eastwood’s movie takes the prize for Best Picture, then the Best Director award will surely fall to Martin Scorsese (or vice versa). I haven’t seen Vera Drake, and while Payne and Hackford both did fine jobs evoking mood and setting in their films, sometimes these awards really are just exercises in industry politics. Clint and Marty are two of the most distinguished filmmakers working today, and each brings a very recognizable style and sensibility to their projects — in Clint’s case, a leisurely approach that builds a story and a theme brick-by-brick, while Marty pummels the audience with energy and flash and such an instinctive grasp on the language of film that it seems almost genetic. But when it comes right down to it, Clint has won a Best Director’s Oscar before (for Unforgiven way back in ’93) and Marty never has won for anything. The Aviator isn’t his best film — that would be Goodfellas, in my opinion — but Martin Scorsese will get the Oscar anyway, for a lifetime of uncompromising artistic vision.

Best Actor
The nominees:

1. Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)
2. Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
3. Leonardo DiCapro (The Aviator)
4. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
5. Jamie Foxx (Ray)

Don Cheadle is reportedly great in Hotel Rwanda (which I haven’t seen) and I believe his time is coming, but this isn’t going to be it. Similarly, Depp graced us with one of his usual fine performances in Finding Neverland, but there wasn’t anything especially flashy or attention-grabbing about this role, so I think he’s going to have to wait a little while longer to get the statue he really deserves. I like Leo DiCaprio and it pisses me off when people underestimate him — the overhyping of Titanic wasn’t his fault, people! — but he’s young yet and he’s going to be with us for a long time, so no Oscar for him this year. Clint is heartbreakingly real in Million Dollar Baby and probably deserves an award, but this year I think he’s going to lose out to Jamie Foxx who doesn’t impersonate the late, great Ray Charles in Ray so much as channel him. Playing someone as well known as Charles is a tough proposition because on some level the audience is always aware that they’re watching an actor, but in this case Foxx disappeared and we saw only Ray. He’ll win, no question, and if he doesn’t then the universe is out of whack.

Best Actress
The nominees:

1. Annette Bening (Being Julia)
2. Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)
3. Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
4. Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)
5. Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind)

Honestly, I don’t even know what Being Julia and Vera Drake are about, even though I’m pretty well plugged into this whole scene, and I don’t think I’m alone. Unless the Academy has sent out a lot of screening copies, I doubt if either of these films is going to get much notice. Maria Full of Grace has been much discussed for its completely objective view of drug-muling, but discussion is one thing and voting another, and again I’m not sure whether enough people actually saw this movie to reward the performance of the unknown Moreno. Of the two remaining choices (which are the only two I’ve actually seen in this category), it’s a pretty tough call. Hilary Swank has emerged as one of our more interesting talents, a fearless chameleon who can play seemingly anything. In Million Dollar Baby, she creates a powerful, memorable, likable character and she went through the kind of physical transformation for the role that appeals to Academy voters. However, she’s already won an Oscar, so my guess is that the award will go to Kate Winslet, who was the human heart at the center of Charlie Kaufman’s weird Eternal Sunshine (although I thought she was better in Finding Neverland, but that’s just me).

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees:

1. Alan Alda (The Aviator)
2. Thomas Haden Church (Sideways)
3. Jamie Foxx (Collateral)
4. Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)
5. Clive Owen (Closer)

Ah, back on more comfortable ground (I’ve seen four of these five nominees). Jamie Foxx, although excellent in Collateral — he stole the film from Tom Cruise, not an inconsiderable feat — will likely not win this one because he’s going to win for Ray. Clive Owen is an excellent actor who deserves recognition, but Closer wasn’t very well liked and didn’t do much at the box office, so I can’t see him winning for it. Thomas Haden Church was a hoot in Sideways, managing to somehow make his character likable even though he was behaving like a total ass, but he’s pretty much an unknown (or else he’s only known for the TV sitcom Wings) and I would say he’s a dark horse at best. That leaves the two elder statesmen, Morgan Freeman and Alan Alda. Freeman plays much the same part in everything he does — the serene old yogi who quietly observes events and occasionally offers a nugget of wisdom — but he’s extremely well liked and I don’t believe he’s ever won before. (I don’t think he took home anything for Driving Miss Daisy, and he definitely should’ve been recognized for The Shawshank Redemption, but I don’t think he was.) He deserves an Oscar for his long career, if not this particular film, and he deserves one for this specific film, too. But then there’s Alan Alda, who works so rarely and is always so good when he does. He’s better than usual in The Aviator, playing a hissably corrupt senator who harasses DiCaprio’s Howard Hughes for personal gain. The role is about as far from Alda’s signature role, the noble Dr. Hawkeye Pierce, as you can imagine, and it’s a standout performance from an actor we haven’t heard from much in recent years. Honestly, I think this category could go either way, but I’m going to toss a coin and say that Alda will win.

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)
2. Laura Linney (Kinsey)
3. Virginia Madesen (Sideways)
4. Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)
5. Natalie Portman (Closer)

And finally, another category in which I’ve only seen two of the nominated films, but I think I can make some educated guesses. Sophie Okonedo probably won’t win because she and her film are relatively obscure. Laura Linney won’t win because Kinsey has generated too much controversy and the entertainment industry seems to be falling all over itself to avoid even the appearance of sex these days. (Damn Janet Jackson and the busybody Puritans anyway!) Natalie Portman is young, likely has a long career ahead of her, and, like I said about Clive Owen’s nomination, Closer wasn’t very well received, so no Oscar for her. That leaves Cate Blanchett, who captured the essence of Hollywood legend Katharine Hepburn without resorting to caricature in The Aviator, and Virginia Madsen, a beautiful woman and fine actress who has spent decades working in relative obscurity until Sideways brought her some overdue attention. This is another category that could go either way between my two finalists, but I’m going to say that it’s Madsen who gets the statuette. Hollywood loves these “overnight” success stories in which journeymen talents finally get recognized, and Madsen seems to have a lot of goodwill behind her.

As for all the other categories, I don’t have a lot to say, although I expect The Aviator to win some technical awards and Sideways may be recognized in the adapted screenplay category…